AI Overviews CTR study: what every major study found (2025 to 2026)

The studies side by side

What each study is good for

Ahrefs (2025 and 2026) compares the same kinds of keywords with and without an AI Overview, using aggregated Search Console data. It is the cleanest "before and after" for position 1. Limit: the 2026 run uses desktop CTR only, and mobile behaves differently.

Pew Research Center watched what real people did. It is the best source for behavior: only 1% of visits with an AI summary included a click on a link inside the summary, and 26% of those visits ended the browsing session, vs 16% without a summary. Limit: March 2025 data, US only, and it measures visits, not CTR by position.

Seer Interactive uses its clients' Search Console and ads data, split by whether the brand was cited. Its 2025 report found cited brands got 35% more organic clicks than uncited ones. Its 2026 report raised that to 120% more clicks per impression, but cited brands still trailed queries with no AI Overview by 38%. Limit: client accounts, not the whole web, and Seer says it cannot claim causation.

Advanced Web Ranking measures CTR by position across a large set of results pages, with feature detection. It shows the hit is not only at position 1: position 2 fell from 10.36% to 3.69% and position 3 from 3.89% to 1.7% when an AI Overview showed. Limit: the headline numbers are US desktop.

Where the studies agree

1. Clicks fall when an AI Overview shows. Every study finds this, from about a third (Ahrefs 2025) to more than half (Ahrefs 2026, AWR).
2. Questions and comparisons are hit hardest. Seer's 2026 data showed AI Overviews on 95.4% of comparison queries and 85.9% of question queries, but only 5% of transactional ones. Pew found summaries on 60% of question searches vs 8% of 1 to 2 word searches.
3. Being cited helps. Seer found a large click gap between cited and uncited brands.

Where they disagree, and why

• Size of the drop. Different years, devices and keyword sets. A 2025 desktop sample and a 2026 client panel will never match.
• Direction in 2026. Ahrefs (Dec 2025 data) shows the gap widening. Seer (Feb 2026 data) shows a partial rebound. Both can be true: the first measures position 1 on desktop, the second all organic clicks on its clients' queries.
• A data caveat. Google later said Search Console over-counted impressions from May 13, 2025 to April 27, 2026, with clicks unaffected (Google, Data anomalies). Studies built on Search Console data from that window may show CTR somewhat lower than it really was. The direction of the finding still holds across studies that use other methods, like Pew's.
• Google's own view. Google says total organic click volume has been "relatively stable" and that clicks from AI results are "higher quality" (Google, Aug 6, 2025). That is about all clicks across the web, not CTR on a given query.

How to use these numbers

• In a client report: quote one study with its date and sample, not a blend. "Ahrefs, Feb 2026, desktop: 58% lower CTR for position 1."
• For your own forecast: do not apply a study's average to your site. Run your own before-and-after on question queries vs brand queries. The zero-click searches guide has the 4-sign test and the regex filters.
• For planning: move effort toward queries with low AI Overview rates (buying, local) and toward being cited on the ones you cannot avoid.